Oil Spikes, Stocks Shrug: What the Market Is Really Telling You

by | Jul 27, 2026 | Blog, Podcasts

Dupree
Financial Group
Podcast Show Notes
The Tom Dupree Show
Episode  ·  July 25, 2026

Oil Spikes, Stocks Shrug: What the Market Is Really Telling You

The Tom Dupree Show| Dupree Financial Group | dupreefinancial.com |859-233-0400
By Tom Dupree, Founder, Dupree Financial Group
Episode Description

This week gave retirement investors a real-time lesson in how markets actually work. Renewed conflict near the Strait of Hormuz sent crude oil sharply higher — the kind of headline that can make anyone glance nervously at a 401(k) statement. Instead, the S&P 500 kept flirting with all-time highs anyway. Tom Dupree, Mike Johnson, and Michael Dawahare — the same team you can hear every week on the Tom Dupree Show podcast archive — dig into why the market’s reaction didn’t match the headline, and what that gap tells you about where to actually look when you’re evaluating your own portfolio.

The team also unpacks a shift that’s been building all year. For the past two years, a handful of “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks carried nearly all of the S&P 500’s earnings growth. Michael walks through why that’s changing — and why the remaining 493 companies in the index are now projected to outpace the Mag Seven’s earnings growth, according to recent market data. Along the way, Tom and Mike connect that shift to two familiar names in Central Kentucky mailboxes — AT&T and Verizon — both of which addressed the SpaceX satellite-to-phone threat directly in their second-quarter 2026 earnings calls.

The through-line Tom keeps coming back to: none of this is a reason to guess, and it’s not a reason to freeze either. It’s a reason to know exactly what you own and why you own it. That’s the same fee-only, fiduciary research-driven approach behind every account DFG manages — a portfolio built around dividend-paying companies doesn’t need Tehran, Washington, or Elon Musk to cooperate in order to keep generating income.

“There’s no easy way to do this. It requires diligence.”

Topics Covered

  • Why crude oil spiked this week after renewed conflict near the Strait of Hormuz
  • How the stock market processed the oil news without a broad sell-off
  • The two-year story of the “Magnificent Seven” carrying most of the S&P 500’s earnings growth
  • Why the “other 493” companies in the index are now projected to outpace the Mag Seven
  • The wide performance gap opening up inside the Mag Seven itself this year
  • Why the equal-weight S&P 500 has outpaced the market-cap-weighted version in 2026
  • AT&T and Verizon’s earnings-call response to the SpaceX direct-to-phone threat
  • Why DFG owns companies based on fundamentals and dividends, not headlines or hype
  • The historical backdrop connecting Britain, oil, and the Strait of Hormuz
  • Reshoring “national championship industries” and what it could mean for long-term growth

Key Takeaways

  • A market reaction isn’t the same as a market verdict. Oil spiked hard this week, but the S&P 500 stayed close to record highs. That gap is a reminder the market is weighing probabilities, not reacting to a single headline — and a scary news cycle doesn’t automatically mean portfolio damage.
  • The “other 493” are catching up. After two years of a small group of mega-cap tech stocks driving nearly all S&P 500 earnings growth, the broader market is now projected to outpace them. That matters if your retirement savings are concentrated in a handful of names.
  • Not every “Magnificent Seven” stock is behaving the same way. Wide performance gaps opened up within the group this year. Owning “the market” through a single index doesn’t mean owning uniform results — it means owning whatever mix that index happens to be weighted toward right now.
  • Fundamentals, not momentum, is the filter. DFG will own a Mag Seven name when the valuation and dividend profile make sense — the decision is driven by earnings, cash flow, and dividends, not by chasing whatever stock is trending.
  • Even household telecom names get tested by disruption. AT&T and Verizon both addressed the SpaceX satellite-to-phone threat directly in this week’s earnings calls — a reminder that even steady, income-paying companies require ongoing diligence, not a buy-and-forget approach.
  • Geopolitics and portfolios are more connected than they look. The long history of global oil markets and shipping lanes helps explain moves that otherwise look confusing scrolling through headlines — context that’s part of the research behind every position in the portfolio.
  • Diligence, not diagnosis, is the DFG approach. Every position gets traced back to one question: how does this translate to your investment portfolio? That’s the filter for oil, tech earnings, telecom competition, or any other headline of the week.

About The Tom Dupree Show

The Tom Dupree Show is hosted by Tom Dupree, founder of Dupree Financial Group and a 47-year veteran of the investment business. Each episode covers the financial topics that matter most to retirees and those approaching retirement — in plain English, without the Wall Street spin.

Dupree Financial Group is a fee-only, fiduciary Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Lexington, Kentucky. The firm manages separately managed accounts focused on income-generating, dividend-paying portfolios — no products sold, no commissions, no conflicts of interest.

Past episodes are available at dupreefinancial.com under the Radio tab.

Related Reading

Schedule a Complimentary Portfolio Review

If you’re not sure whether your portfolio is built to hold steady through a week like this one — oil spiking, tech stocks pulling in different directions, telecom giants fighting off a new competitor — we’ll take a look. No charge. No pressure. Just an honest conversation about what you own and whether it’s working for you.

About The Author

Tom Dupree is the founder of Dupree Financial Group and has spent 47 years in the investment business, beginning his career in municipal bonds in 1978. He hosts The Tom Dupree Show and manages client portfolios built around dividend- and interest-paying investments designed to produce retirement income.

Dupree Financial Group  ·  Fee-only. Fiduciary. Lexington, KY  · dupreefinancial.com  ·  859-233-0400 This document is for reference and internal use. Not for public distribution.

Dupree Financial Group is a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information presented on this program is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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