Rising Interest Rates. FIRE. And People Masquerading as Investors…Oh MY!
So rising interest rates are a sign that the economy is picking up. And that’s what’s happened since last year. And when you look at where interest rates are long-term interest rates, your 10 year 30 year relative to where they were just a few years ago, they’re still below where they were in 2018, then even early 2019. So you know, whether this has any sort of impact on the market, now it does impact. If you’re a bond investor if you think interest rates are going to stay low or going lower, and you allocate according to that, then yes, it may have an impact, but if you’re an equity investor, interest rates right now, are Nothing to worry about as far as your overall equity exposure goes. That’s not to say that, the market cannot pull back. Just saying that the level of interest rates should not be a consideration or your news and what near term interest rates may do should not be a consideration when it comes to allocating your equity portfolio…Because then you’re getting into the market timing and trading, whatever you’re trying to speculate, essentially on what interest rates are.
It’s interesting. Buffet, the way that he’ll talk out of both sides of his mouth on tax policies getting old. You look at how much he saw, he’s giving away half of his Berkshire stock. You look at what he said in the past, it was like, Okay, if you want to give more in taxes, why don’t you just write a check? The government, they’ll take it… they’ll gladly tell you. But he said that he thinks that the names leaving me Africa, which foundation it was, but that it’s more efficient at allocating the dollars and the government is it’s like, Yeah, no kidding does so why are you arguing for higher taxes, And so It’s amazing the inefficiencies of bureaucracy just in general. The government, you look at some large corporations, how just inefficiencies creep in. And then they have to go in and right the ship. We’ve seen that so many times with companies, they have to go in and right the ship. Because there’s accountability from the shareholders, to the shareholders, if you will, versus with the government. And so you don’t have that accountability, you don’t have the efficiencies, you have all this bloat. But with these new things that are happening, it is affecting the market one way or the other. And that’s something that we as investment advisors, portfolio managers, have to be aware of, and not invest based on this, but be aware of it and how it interacts with our client’s portfolios.
FIRE, financial independence retire early, save 120% of your paycheck, right? That here’s the thing on the, on the fire movement, that there are aspects of it that love and really respect. And then there are other things that are, in my opinion very debatable and questionable and feasible. The whole premise of FIRE is you’re saving the, from an ideal perspective, somebody say 70% of their income, and then they can retire, say in their 40s or whatever.
Peter Thiel. Turn $2,000 in a Roth IRA in $5 billion deals, Ira was worth less than $2,000. In 1999. According to IRS data, they can’t jump more than $3 billion in three years. Do we have any idea of what he invested in? You put $2,000 in? He bought 1.7 million shares of Paypal for less than a penny. Yeah. A 10th of a penny. And I think he, he was one of the founders. So that’s how that happened. I mean, do the same thing with Facebook. And, yeah, so he was able to get those shares, and I guess someone advised him, but she put that in Roth IRAs. So ultimately, there are no taxes. They’re trying to change the law on this, trying to make exceptions to the Roth tax-free line for, things like this. They’ve talked about making exceptions for, because this is not what the Roth was intended for.
There are lots of people masquerading as investors that really aren’t. And the reason is they don’t have a well-developed idea of what it is to obtain value.
So I think the main point is that investing or anything to do with money is very emotional. And ultimately, it’s important to recognize these emotions and develop a plan, where you get these emotions out of the way.
That’s what financial advisors should do. They make sure that investors stick to their plans. And don’t let their biases impair their investments.